... — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2019.
I think we got a lot wrong about Mr. Trump, but I think we nailed Mr. Cruz. This is true when he did poorly in the UK, where that methodology doesn’t work under the first-pass-the-post-system, or in the Republican primary race. I will definitely be sharing this.
. I don't have any magical way of reconciling the two, but I do a few thoughts worth considerationNYPD saw the outcry over unmarked federal officers detaining protesters in Portland and decided to use similar tacticsBut the protesters who were present on Tuesday evening disputed the NYPD’s version of events, insisting that they did not physically engage with the officers, even at the time of the arrest.No, the latest very different-seeming results from these pollsters don’t provide an apples-to-apples comparison: The NYT/Siena polls are state-level and ABC/WaPo is a national poll. Some pundits initially argued that if the election was close, Clinton’s superior campaign organization would put her over the top; then, after she lost, many flogged her for failing to get out the vote in key states. . As Cohn noted, though, they do suggest different states of the political world:“[I]f I get it,” he told CNN in June, “you’ll never see me without a mask.”Zuckerberg said a bit too much while testifying before the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrustAsked on ABC’s “Good Morning America” about Trump retweeting a post claiming Fauci has “misled the American public on many issues,” Fauci responded: “’I have not been misleading the American public under any circumstances.”In an email to The Washington Post, authorities identified the protester as 18-year-old Nikki Stone, who has also been referred to online as Nicki. His reporting focuses on elections, public opinion, and demographics in the United States. Despite harangues from Cohn and Nate Silver, Kos’ leader, Markos Moulitsas, took to Twitter to defend PPP in the aftermath of Cohn’s first article. He would be counting on superdelegates.In the end, Mr. Kasich was strong enough only to block a viable mainstream candidate, leaving Mr. Cruz as the sole remaining candidate to defeat Mr. Trump.
Nate Silver, "The Influence Index", Time, April 29, …
Silver is now the elder statesman of a growing class of data-based journalists, including his frenemy Nate Cohn of The Upshot, with whom he likes to spar. . Trump had consistently led in surveys of GOP voters, but Silver had succumbed to the conventional wisdom that the interloper couldn’t possibly prevail.TheAtlantic.com Copyright (c) 2020 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. He said “a lot of things that boil down to what you might call matters of taste,” such as “how certain things are described or when to apply a certain method to a certain problem.Silver had fans in Times management, but the paper couldn’t meet his demands to stay.Cohn acknowledged the map can change before the 2020 election, but responded: “The piece is plainly describing the president's current standing, and goes to unusual lengths to explain that it can change.”Nonetheless, a New York Times spokesperson told POLITICO: "We don't always agree with Nate but he sometimes offers smart criticism of our work and we value that, it makes us better.”But, she added, there seemed “to be a personal hostility that was coming through that was more than about methodology.” She said it looked like Silver was criticizing Cohn “for doing the same type of piece that Nate Silver has written many times.”“Practitioners often feel passionately about matters like these,” he added, “but I don't know that they're terribly newsworthy or important in the grand scheme of things.”I’ve read it. The math says that I can get a perfect fit with an eighth-order polynomial. The eighth-term Republican told CNN last month that he was not wearing a mask because he was being tested regularly for the coronavirus.Fauci finds cure for stressing over Trump tweets: don’t even read themPerdue’s campaign insists the distortion of his Jewish opponent’s image was unintentional, and has yet to say whether it will cut ties with the vendorRep.
An even bigger surprise was the complete failure of Republican elites to firmly and consistently denounce Mr. Trump. (That single snapshot was covered so breathlessly that the director of the university’s polling institute took the rare step of publicly noting how much it deviated from the others.) Police said Stone is facing charges of criminal mischief related to the five incidents.… “I don’t tweet. To make amends, they sent reporters to Trump country, seeking to understand the sources and strength of the president’s support by lingering in Ohio diners and Pennsylvania factories. We were just overconfident.A better argument might have been: Trump actually did better in large races where non-registered party voters could vote in the Republican primary- showing his ability to draw across ideological lines. It’s not that these factors don’t matter—they do—but Silver’s work suggests that they don’t matter nearly as much as most journalists imagine.